NDX: Advancing

Sunday, February 19th, 2017

Trip I

   ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The short term and intermediate trend I2 and I3 curves are rising in both panels this weekend.  The trend is up without ambiguity.  This situation has been evident since the start of the year and is continuing with no end in sight.  Markets are not elevators so to find one acting that way is quite unusual.  Of course, we live in times which are anything but usual and this should make us all nervous.  Nevertheless, the key to this approach to investment is to follow the Trip I and the Trip I is up.  Long is the order of the day.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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NDX: Continuing to Advance

Sunday, February 12th, 2017

Trip I

   ISLM    GRBE    WATS

 The Trip I this weekend is rising.  In both the short term and intermediate panels below the I2 and I3 curves are above the I1 trend channel; the signal is one of continuous advance.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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NDX: Top Not Yet

Sunday, January 29th, 2017

Trip I

   ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The Trip I this weekend is showing a continuing rise in the NDX.  The short term and intermediate term I2 and I3 curves are well above their respective I1 trends and the respective trend channels.  The clear indication is that the uptrend has received new strength in the last week.  This is reflected in the DOW crossing 20,000 and the continuing euphoria surrounding markets as warnings of a possible market  break continue to grow.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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NDX: Still a Top?

Sunday, January 22nd, 2017

Trip I

   ISLM    GRBE    WATS

Still a top?  The Trip I is indecisive saying neither yes nor no.  The short term I2 and I3 curves are just above the I1 trend and inside the I1 trend channel.    This means the short term trend is flat.  However the intermediate trend in the right panel displays I2 and I3 curves well above the intermediate I1 trend and the I1 trend channel indicating an intermediate advance.  The Trip I may be about to begin a change and then it may not.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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NDX: More Top

Sunday, January 15th, 2017

Trip I

   ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The Trip I this weekend continues to argue for advance.  The short term Trip I I2 and I3 curves have dropped down to the  I1 trend, but are showing signs of reversal.  The intermediate panel on the right displays the intermediate I2 and I3 curves well above the I1 trend.  The continued direction must be considered up.

Short Trend < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Trend

 

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NDX: Ambiguities

Sunday, January 8th, 2017

Trip I

ISLM    GRBE    WATS

A week can make a difference.  Last weekend the NDX had appeared to make a long anticipated top.  However last week sent the the NDX to a new high and sent a message that a top was not yet.  Indeed, the Trump Rally continues to expand and may well continue upward without even the most modest of corrections.  The Trip I argues that this will have to occur as a thrust against strong resistance.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

The left panel shows the I2 and I3 curves of the short term I1 trend.  These curves are heavily stressed to the upside and have formed a hook indicating a break in the short term bullish strength.  Short term weakness should appear next week as these curves should follow the example of earlier such situations and move lower.  This need not break the advance as can be seen in the right panel where the intermediate term I1 trend is seen to be making inflections at similar times to the short term pullbacks.

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XAU: Squirming

Monday, January 2nd, 2017

Trip I

CD’S    ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The first weekend in the new year gives us a Trip I showing a rising XAU.  The short term Trip I in the left panel below is slightly rising to flat in the short term Trip I.  We will give it a benefit of a doubt and call it rising as the I2 and I3 curves seem poised for a move up.  The right panel shows a clearly rising intermediate I1 trend.  The I2 and I3 curves are well above the I1 trend.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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NDX: A New Year’s Top

Monday, January 2nd, 2017

Trip I

CD’S    ISLM    GRBE    WATS

We appear to have made a top.  The Trip I in both the short term and intermediate panels below now show a declining I1 trend.  In both cases the I2 and I3 curves are below the I1 trend channel.  A possible rally attempt is coming in the short term panel but it is likely to fail given the downside position in the intermediate panel.  With such failure the short term trend will be set to the downside.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

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XAU: Nothing Changes

Sunday, December 25th, 2016

Trip I

CD’S    ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The Trip I shows an attempt at reversal in the left, short term panel.  However, the result is at most an I1, short term, flat trend to the right.  In the right panel we see that the intermediate I1 trend is still down and the I2 and I3 curves are still well below the I1 trend.  While an attempt is being made once again to alleviate the downtrend and proceed towards a reversal of trend we are at best just beginning to make the attempt.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

Since this scene has been painted before in recent memory we may on the face of it expect it to fail again.  Yet maybe not.  We will discuss the situation a bit more in the Trend Block scenario below.

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NDX: Weakness Appearing Again

Sunday, December 25th, 2016

Trip I

CD’S    ISLM    GRBE    WATS

The Trip I is slowly beginning to show weakness.  The short term I1 trend is turning flat.  The short term I2 and I3 curves are within the trend channel and are just about on top of the I1 trend.  In the right panel the intermediate I1 trend is starting to roll over and the intermediate I2 and I3 curves have turned flat overall.  The strength we anticipated to see continue for awhile when the NDX reached a new high has so far failed to appear. The current breakout above the high in October appears increasingly to be a move of exhaustion–an overthrow.

Short Term < Trip I Panels > Intermediate Term

If this impression follows through it should not be long before the intermediate Trip I turns flat to down arguing for a market break most likely after the first of the year.

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